4/03/2008

Modeling High-Stakes Consumer Decisions in Repeated Contexts: The Problem of Mammography Adherence Following False Alarm Test Results

Modeling High-Stakes Consumer Decisions in Repeated Contexts: The Problem of Mammography Adherence Following False Alarm Test Results

By:
Barbara E. Kahn
Mary Frances Luce

ABSTRACT

Consumers often have to decide whether to acquire information in stressful, high-stakes domains. We study women in mammography waiting rooms to test how the information-gathering experience influences intentions regarding their next scheduled mammogram. In particular, we investigate how a patient’s "false alarm" result on one occasion (i.e., a mammogram’s indication that cancer is present when a ‘more accurate’ follow-up test reveals it is not) affects willingness to get a regularly scheduled mammogram the next time it is due. We adapt the normative value of information framework by hypothesizing that stress may moderate reactions to a false positive test result. Study 1 demonstrates that a false alarm can delay planned testing adherence but only when that false alarm test result has no implications about the likelihood of future cancer. For patients receiving a false alarm result, information providing either problem-focused coping support by stressing the patient’s control or emotion-focused coping support by stressing the frequency of false alarm results mitigates negative future adherence effects. These reactions to false alarm results are moderated by stress, a finding that is developed in Study 2 where we show that stress alters patients’ assessments of the utilities associated with testing outcomes. Study 3 shows that, in the presence of a false alarm result, women with actual false alarm history who experience stress are more likely to delay their next mammogram whereas women without actual false alarm history who experience stress are less likely to delay their next mammogram.

KEYWORDS: Value of Information, Decision-making under uncertainty, Behavioral Decision Theory; Stress

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Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings: Evidence and Proposals

Discovery and Communication of Important Marketing Findings:
Evidence and Proposals (31 Page)

By
J. Scott Armstrong
October 8, 2001


ABSTRACT

I conducted a review of empirical research on scientific publication. This led to three criteria for identifying whether findings are important: replicability, validity, and usefulness. A fourth criterion, surprise, applies in some situations. Based on these criteria, important findings resulting from academic research in marketing seem to be rare. To a large extent, this rarity is due to a reward system that is built around subjective peer review. Rather than using peer review as a secret screening process, we should use it as an open process to improve papers and inform readers. Researchers, journals, business schools, funding agencies, and professional organizations can all contribute to improving the process. For example, researchers should do directed research on papers that contribute to principles, journals should invite papers that contribute to principles, business school administrators should reward researchers who make important findings, funding agencies should base decisions on researchers' prior success in making important findings, and professional organizations should maintain web sites that describe what is known about principles and what research is needed on principles.
Keywords: competing hypotheses, peer review, principles, replication, surprising findings, validity
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